IEA warns of slow Gulf oil recovery even as Hormuz deal nears (opens original article in a new tab)

The IEA warns of a sharp decline in global oil supply and demand in 2026, with gradual recovery in Gulf exports due to ongoing operational and political challenges despite a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Global oil supply is forecast to fall by 3.9 million bpd in 2026 before rebounding in 2027
• Global oil demand is expected to decline by 1.1 million bpd in 2026, with a 5 million bpd drop in the second quarter
• The US-Iran interim deal aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but operational and political constraints may slow Gulf oil recovery