When is the Makerfield by-election and who is ahead in the polls? (opens original article in a new tab)

Reform UK faces a likely defeat in the Makerfield by-election, with Labour predicted to win by five points due to internal challenges and competition from Restore Britain.

• A Reform UK board member admitted Andy Burnham's influence is making the Makerfield by-election difficult for the party.
• Internal Reform UK data predicts Labour will win by about five points with 45.5% of the vote, compared to 41% for Reform UK and 5% for Restore Britain.
• Reform UK insiders cited 'disastrous candidate selection' and failure to counter Restore Britain as key weaknesses.