K-Research sees H2 nadir, then a stimulus rebound (opens original article in a new tab)

K-Research predicts Thai economy will reach its lowest point in the second half of 2026 before recovering in the third quarter due to government stimulus measures, while facing ongoing risks from US tariffs and regional conflicts.

• K-Research expects Thai economy to bottom out in H2 2026 with recovery in Q3 driven by government stimulus
• US tariffs and potential US-Iran peace deal create economic risks affecting exports and inflation
• Manufacturing Production Index projected to contract 0.5% in 2026 for fourth consecutive year
• Bank of Thailand likely to keep policy rate at 1% through 2026 despite uncertainties
• Baht forecast to weaken to 32.80 per dollar by year-end